Technical Bases for Yucca Mountain Standards by Committee on Technical Bases for Yucca Mountain Standards

Author:Committee on Technical Bases for Yucca Mountain Standards
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Environment and Environmental Studies : Waste Disposal and Clean Up
Publisher: NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Published: 1995-07-28T00:00:00+00:00

Volcanism

A volcanic intrusion into the proposed repository could be catastrophic, releasing a major part of the repository inventory directly into the biosphere. However, the overall risk might be very low, because it is also a very unlikely event. Like seismicity, volcanism is episodic. The two phenomena could also be linked, in that some seismic activity can be triggered during periods of volcanic activity. Unlike seismicity, volcanism in the Yucca Mountain region involves intermittent concentrated activity separated by long repose periods. Even so, like seismicity, estimates of future volcanic activity can be based on analysis of the geologic record, with the assumption that the same pattern of events will hold in the future.

The risk from volcanism at Yucca Mountain is being examined using a probabilistic approach. According to Crowe et al. (1994), current studies are designed to establish three components of an overall probability of magmatic disruption of a repository:

1. Future recurrence rate of volcanic events, such as volcanic centers or volcanic clusters;

2. The probability that a future event will intersect a specified area, such as the repository or a controlled area beyond the repository;

3. The probability that an event occurring within the specified area will release radionuclides into the biosphere.

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